Pakistan’s long-term export ambitions have received a cautious assessment from the International Monetary Fund, which predicts slower growth in export earnings than envisaged by the government.
While Islamabad aims to increase exports to $60 billion by 2030, the IMF estimates that Pakistan’s exports will reach about $46 billion by the end of the decade. The projection suggests a gradual increase from $36.46 billion next year to about $43 billion by 2029, reflecting steady but restrained growth.
At the same time, the IMF expects imports to increase sharply, driven by rising economic activity and energy needs. Imports are expected to exceed $64 billion this fiscal year, reach $77 billion in 2029 and reach $82.81 billion by 2030.
Trade economists say the widening gap between exports and imports underscores the urgent need for export-led reforms. According to experts, Pakistan should move beyond its reliance on traditional textile exports and invest in higher-value sectors such as engineering goods, IT services and agri-based value chains.
Experts also point out that improving logistics, reducing the cost of doing business, and ensuring policy consistency are key to narrowing the trade gap. Without these measures, they warn, import growth could outpace exports, which will continue to put pressure on the external account despite modest gains in exports.
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