Ongoing wars and regional conflicts globally have put oil production, transportation and refining under severe pressure. The current situation has increased the supply risks in the global energy market many times over.
According to a recent Reuters analysis, countries affected by the conflicts produced about 45 million barrels of oil per day in 2025. This amount accounts for more than 43% of the world’s total oil supply.
The Iran conflict is of particular importance in this situation. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global oil trade. The current crisis has significantly affected the delivery of oil through this route.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, the average delivery of crude oil and other liquid fuels through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026 was only 4.9 million barrels per day. In the last quarter of 2025, before the conflict, this amount was 21.6 million barrels per day.
This means that the global market is not only facing a decrease in production. Getting oil from one region to another has also become a major problem.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has also complicated the situation. The attacks on Russian energy and refining facilities in Ukraine have affected Russia’s refining activities. This has increased pressure on the global availability of diesel and other refined products.
According to the latest assessment of the International Energy Agency, global oil production is expected to decline by about 4.3 million barrels per day during 2026. The agency has cited ongoing disruptions in the Middle East as a major reason for this situation.
The refining sector has not been immune to this crisis. Global refinery production has been about 5 million barrels per day lower than last year’s level. The attacks on Russian refineries and disruptions in petroleum product exports from the Middle East have further increased this pressure.
The ongoing instability in Libya and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have also increased global supply risks. Due to these factors, the global oil market has become more sensitive than before.
The decline in global reserves is also a cause for concern. According to the IEA, global oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, limiting the amount of safety stock available to the market.
However, some alternative routes are also being used in the global market. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have increased the use of alternative export routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Refineries in the United States and India are also playing an important role in meeting global fuel demand.
This situation is of particular importance for Pakistan because the country meets a large part of its petroleum needs through imports. Disruptions in global supply or a continuous increase in the price of crude oil could put pressure on Pakistan’s import bill and local fuel prices.
Along with this, the costs of transport, power generation and industrial activities may also be affected. However, the impact of global prices on local petroleum prices is not immediately transmitted to the same level. Exchange rates, taxes, levies and other local factors also play an important role.
The current situation clearly shows that the global energy crisis is no longer just a problem of oil production. Safe sea routes, refining capacity, global reserves and alternative supply chains have also become fundamental to energy stability.
If tensions in the Middle East and disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine war persist, global oil markets are likely to remain volatile. In this situation, it will become even more important for oil-importing countries to maintain alternative sources and adequate reserves.
