Global energy crisis may increase pressure on Pakistan’s inflation

Pakistan’s inflation rate is likely to remain at 9.9 percent in the current fiscal year, while the pace of economic growth is expected to slow slightly. According to the latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s economy may continue to face challenges such as expensive energy, global uncertainty and external economic pressures.

According to the IMF, Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to be 3.5 percent in the current fiscal year, which is slightly lower than the 3.6 percent of the previous fiscal year. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent.

The report also estimates that the current account deficit will be equal to one percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). The potential rise in inflation could make it difficult for ordinary citizens to cut household spending, especially if food and energy prices rise further.

Global economic growth is also likely to remain under pressure. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 percent, down from last year’s 3.5 percent. However, this estimate is slightly better than the organization’s July estimate of 3 percent. The global growth forecast for 2027 has been maintained at 3.4 percent.

Among the major economies, India’s growth rate is expected to be 7 percent, China’s 4.5 percent and the United States’ 2.3 percent. The estimate for European economies is 1.1 percent, reflecting the differences in growth rates across regions.

The IMF has described the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising energy prices as key risks to the global economy. Oil-importing countries may have to bear higher costs in this situation. In Pakistan, too, rising energy import costs are likely to put pressure on inflation.

According to the report, investment in artificial intelligence and data centers is supporting the economies of some countries, but its benefits are not reaching every country equally. The IMF has warned that if investment in this sector does not yield the expected results, global financial conditions may also be affected.

The organization has estimated global inflation to be 4.7 percent in 2026, which may decrease to 4.1 percent in 2027. However, this forecast may change with further increases in food and energy prices.

The IMF has urged governments to manage public spending and debt cautiously. Controlling inflation, maintaining economic stability and increasing employment opportunities will be key economic priorities for Pakistan in the coming months.