The National Accounts Committee has revised down Pakistan’s economic growth rate estimate for the fiscal year 2025-26 from 3.70 percent to 3.65 percent. According to the revised figures, the size of the country’s economy was $450.4 billion, while the per capita annual income was recorded at $1,896.
These decisions were taken in the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee, which was chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives. The meeting reviewed the economic statistics and quarterly growth rate of the previous fiscal year.
According to the committee, the total size of the economy was earlier estimated at $452.1 billion, which was revised to $450.4 billion. Thus, the size of the economy decreased by $1.7 billion compared to the previous estimate. Per capita annual income also fell to $1,896 from the interim estimate of $1,901.
According to sector-wise data, the growth rate of the agricultural sector was 3.5 percent, which was previously estimated at 2.89 percent. In contrast, the growth rate of the industrial sector decreased to 3.34 percent from the previous estimate of 3.51 percent, while the growth rate of the services sector was recorded at 3.81 percent from 4.09 percent.
The growth rate of the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26 was revised from 3.92 percent to 3.89 percent. The estimate for the second quarter was increased from 4.05 percent to 4.31 percent and the growth rate of the third quarter was increased from 3.99 percent to 4.42 percent.
However, the pace of economic growth slowed significantly in the last quarter of the financial year and the growth rate was recorded at 2 percent. This shows that despite the better performance in the first three quarters, the results of the last quarter have affected the overall annual growth rate.
The committee has also revised down the economic growth rate for the financial year 2024-25 from 3.18 percent to 3.11 percent. The revision incorporated the latest national accounts data and updated information on imports.
The revision of the economic growth rate has brought out a fresh estimate of the performance of the country’s output and various sectors. The prospects for sustainable growth in the coming period can be gauged from the progress made in industrial activities, agricultural production, the services sector and overall economic stability.
