El Niño effects are increasing; less rainfall and higher temperatures are likely in Pakistan

The new weather forecast of the Pakistan Meteorological Department has raised several important concerns regarding the upcoming monsoon season, according to which rainfall is likely to be below normal in most parts of the country during July to September 2026, while temperatures are likely to be above normal.

According to meteorologists, the warm weather condition arising in the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, is gradually strengthening. El Nino is associated with dry weather and low monsoon rainfall globally, and Pakistan may also be affected by its possible effects.

The Meteorological Department says that although signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are appearing in the Indian Ocean, which sometimes causes an increase in rainfall, its impact on Pakistan’s overall monsoon season is likely to be limited due to its late activation.

According to the latest estimates, the amount of rainfall in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may be below average. On the other hand, rainfall is expected to be relatively good in Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Experts say that the agricultural sector may be particularly affected due to the low rainfall. Important crops of the Kharif season, including rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize, may require additional irrigation, which may increase the pressure on water reserves.

The report also points out that higher than normal temperatures in the northern regions may increase the melting of snow and glaciers. This situation may create the risk of increased river flows, landslides, flash floods and the eruption of glacial lakes.

Several concerns have also been expressed for urban areas. According to weather experts, there is a possibility of urban flooding in big cities in the event of sudden heavy rains, while strong winds and dust storms may damage infrastructure.

Regarding public health, the report warns that hot and humid weather conditions can increase the risk of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue. Similarly, the effects of intermittent heat waves can be significant in urban and rural areas of southern Punjab and Sindh.

Experts say that in the context of climate change, Pakistan will have to adopt an integrated strategy in the water, agriculture, health and disaster management sectors to combat potential threats in a timely manner.