Pakistan is facing a looming energy emergency as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports are projected to hit near-zero levels by April 2026. This supply crunch, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has seen gas availability for the power sector plummet from 150 mmcfd in March to a forecasted 80 mmcfd.
The shortage directly threatens the operational capacity of four major LNG-fired power plants, which collectively contribute approximately 5,000 MW to the national grid. With summer demand expected to surge between 27,000 and 28,000 MW, the government is reportedly preparing for two to three hours of daily load-shedding to manage the widening gap between supply and consumption.
To mitigate the shortfall, authorities are pivoting toward furnace oil-based generation, a move that experts warn will significantly inflate consumer costs. Electricity produced from furnace oil is estimated to exceed Rs 35 per unit, nearly quadruple the cost of traditional sources.
Consequently, citizens could face Fuel Cost Adjustments (FCA) ranging from Rs 10 to Rs 12 per unit on their monthly bills. While the Ministry of Energy highlights an increasing reliance on local solar, hydel, and nuclear power to buffer the impact, the immediate depletion of LNG reserves remains a critical bottleneck for the country’s energy security as the peak heat season begins.