Pakistan Seeks India’s Explanation Over Sharp Drop in Chenab River Flows
Pakistan has formally taken up the issue of an unusual reduction in the flow of the Chenab River with India, seeking an explanation under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty, according to the Ministry of Water Resources.
Officials confirmed that the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters has raised the matter with his Indian counterpart after hydrological data indicated an abnormal decline in river flows earlier this month. Pakistan has maintained that under the treaty, emptying dead storage at run-of-the-river hydropower projects is strictly prohibited.
The ministry stated that following the period of reduced flow, the Chenab River at Marala Headworks has now shown signs of stabilization. Continuous monitoring of the river’s discharge is being carried out by the Punjab Irrigation Department, with verified data regularly shared with the Indus Waters Commissioner’s Office.
According to official records, the river experienced a significant and prolonged fluctuation, with an unusually sharp decline observed between December 10 and December 16, 2025. During this period, the minimum recorded flow dropped to 870 cusecs, far below the historical minimum range of 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs observed over the past decade for the same dates.
To assess the cause of the anomaly, authorities reviewed satellite imagery dated December 8, 2025, which revealed a notable reduction in the surface area of the Baglihar reservoir. Subsequent satellite images from December 13, 2025, however, showed a restoration in the reservoir’s surface area.
Experts interpret this pattern as an indication that the reservoir may have been drawn down and later refilled. According to water treaty analysts, such actions raise concerns if they involve the release of dead storage, which is not allowed under the Indus Waters Treaty for western rivers.
The ministry further noted that hydrological conditions began improving from December 17, with river flows gradually increasing to 6,399 cusecs by 7:00 am on that day.
Water policy experts believe Pakistan’s decision to formally seek clarification is a necessary step to safeguard its water rights. Analysts stress that transparent data sharing and adherence to treaty obligations are crucial for preventing escalation and maintaining trust between the two countries.